Reported actives exceed independently observed actives by 18.4%
18.4% gap
from ≤ 5% · +13.4pp
41,200
All tenants · August · monthly actives
—
Not a churn-bearing finding
3d 0h ago
25 Aug 14:20 UTC
Commercial integrity. Entitlement, payment, subscription lifecycle, invoicing.
Triage
What is happening
AWG's subscriber report for August names 224,100 monthly actives across the portfolio. Firebase and NPAW together observe 182,900 distinct AUMS UUIDs with at least one session in the same window — a gap of 41,200, or 18.4%. Part of the gap is measurable and expected: Tizen and tvOS telemetry is absent from the interim NPAW feed, which accounts for at most 12,400 of it. The residual 28,800 is unexplained and is the number to take into the renegotiation. This is the trust-but-verify metric, and it is stated with its own uncertainty attached rather than as a clean accusation.
Agree a shared definition of 'monthly active' with AWG before disputing the figure. The residual 28,800 survives any reasonable definition and is the defensible part of the claim.
What fired, and against what
Each signal names the detector that produced it, the value it saw and the value it expected. This is the part a vendor will try to take apart, so it is stated in full.
- S-8912
Reported vs. observed actives
AWG224,100 vs 182,900expected ≤ 5% gap+18.4%- Slice
- Portfolio · August
- Detector
- Threshold rule
- Confidence
- 94%
- Users
- 41,200
- Detected
- 3d 0h ago
- S-8915
Unmeasured platform population
NPAW12,400expected 0explains 30% of gap- Slice
- Tizen · tvOS
- Detector
- Cohort decomposition
- Confidence
- 71%
- Users
- 12,400
- Detected
- 2d 22h ago
Evidence
The governed query each detector ran, the rows it returned, and the fact grain underneath. Every table exports.
Reported against observed, per tenant
SELECT tenant_id, awg_reported_actives, observed_actives, round(100.0 * (awg_reported_actives - observed_actives) / awg_reported_actives, 1) AS gap_pct FROM recon.actives_comparison WHERE cycle = '2026-08' ORDER BY gap_pct DESC
| tenant | AWG reported | observed | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revolut BR | 84,200 | 66,100 | 21.5% |
| Nexo Bank MX | 48,900 | 39,800 | 18.6% |
| Praia Telecom BR | 31,400 | 26,200 | 16.6% |
| Andes Móvil CO | 27,800 | 23,900 | 14.0% |
| Vela Fintech AR | 18,600 | 16,400 | 11.8% |
| Sur Digital CL | 13,200 | 11,500 | 12.9% |
Route an evidence ticket
Pre-filled from the finding and addressed by fault domain. Editable before it goes.
No agreed intakeNo agreed intake. Tickets go to a named individual and are not tracked by AWG. The ticket will be recorded here with no external reference to quote back.
- Reported against observed, per tenant (6 rows)
Timeline
- Detected25 Aug 14:20 UTC
Threshold rule on Reported vs. observed actives — 18.4% gap against ≤ 5%
Detection engine - Acknowledged25 Aug 18:40 UTC
260 minutes after detection, against a 60-minute target
AWG — platform - Routed25 Aug 18:40 UTC
AWG — platform — AWG-EMAIL-0822
M. Ferreira - Rejected26 Aug 14:20 UTC
AWG rejected on the grounds that 'monthly active' is defined differently on each side. That objection is fair for part of the gap and does not touch the residual 28,800.
AWG — platform
Related findings
Clustered support tickets
No tickets matched. For a detection-capability finding that is expected; for a service finding it means users are affected but not yet complaining.
Sample affected users
Not attributable to individual users — this finding is scoped to a connector or a region window, not a cohort of people.