LogsF-2308

Reported actives exceed independently observed actives by 18.4%

P2
Acked within200m 00sof 60m 00s
Reported vs. observed actives

18.4% gap

from ≤ 5% · +13.4pp

Affected users

41,200

All tenants · August · monthly actives

Cancels at risk

—

Not a churn-bearing finding

Detected

3d 0h ago

25 Aug 14:20 UTC

Attributable to
AWG

Commercial integrity. Entitlement, payment, subscription lifecycle, invoicing.

Response

Detected
  1. Detected
  2. Acknowledged
  3. Investigating
  4. Routed
  5. Resolved

Past the acknowledgement target by 200 minutes. Take it to stop the clock.

Discussion

1 messages
  1. M. Ferreirarouted2d 19h ago

    Reported monthly actives exceed observed by 18.4%

    AWG - platform · AWG-EMAIL-0822

  2. AWG - platformreplied2d 0h ago

    AWG rejected on the grounds that 'monthly active' is defined differently on each side. That objection is fair for part of the gap and does not touch the residual 28,800.

    Rejected

Description

AWG's subscriber report for August names 224,100 monthly actives across the portfolio. Firebase and NPAW together observe 182,900 distinct AUMS UUIDs with at least one session in the same window — a gap of 41,200, or 18.4%. Part of the gap is measurable and expected: Tizen and tvOS telemetry is absent from the interim NPAW feed, which accounts for at most 12,400 of it. The residual 28,800 is unexplained and is the number to take into the renegotiation. This is the trust-but-verify metric, and it is stated with its own uncertainty attached rather than as a clean accusation.

Suggested action

Agree a shared definition of 'monthly active' with AWG before disputing the figure. The residual 28,800 survives any reasonable definition and is the defensible part of the claim.

Related logs

2 signals · expand a row for the event data
  • 2026-08-25T14:20:00.000ZS-8912 THRESHOLD RULE Reported vs. observed actives — observed 224,100 vs 182,900, expected ≤ 5% gap+18.4%
    Detected
    25 Aug 14:20 UTC3d 0h ago
    Detector
    Threshold rule
    Slice
    Portfolio · August
    Confidence
    94%
    Affected users
    41,200
    Observed
    224,100 vs 182,900
    Expected
    ≤ 5% gap
    Deviation
    +18.4%
    Event dataAWGGET /awg/v2/entitlements200980mss-8912-00a3c
    {
  "timestamp": "2026-08-25T14:20:00.000Z",
  "endpoint": "GET /awg/v2/entitlements",
  "requestId": "s-8912-00a3c",
  "status": 200,
  "latencyMs": 980,
  "request": {
    "metric": "Reported vs. observed actives",
    "slice": "Portfolio · August",
    "detector": "rule",
    "window": "6h"
  },
  "response": {
    "observed": "224,100 vs 182,900",
    "expected": "≤ 5% gap",
    "deviation": "+18.4%",
    "confidence": 0.94,
    "affected_users": 41200,
    "columns": [
      "tenant",
      "AWG reported",
      "observed",
      "gap"
    ],
    "rows": [
      [
        "Revolut BR",
        "84,200",
        "66,100",
        "21.5%"
      ],
      [
        "Nexo Bank MX",
        "48,900",
        "39,800",
        "18.6%"
      ],
      [
        "Praia Telecom BR",
        "31,400",
        "26,200",
        "16.6%"
      ],
      [
        "Andes Móvil CO",
        "27,800",
        "23,900",
        "14.0%"
      ],
      [
        "Vela Fintech AR",
        "18,600",
        "16,400",
        "11.8%"
      ],
      [
        "Sur Digital CL",
        "13,200",
        "11,500",
        "12.9%"
      ]
    ]
  }
}
    Query
    SELECT tenant_id, awg_reported_actives, observed_actives,
  round(100.0 * (awg_reported_actives - observed_actives) / awg_reported_actives, 1) AS gap_pct
FROM recon.actives_comparison WHERE cycle = '2026-08' ORDER BY gap_pct DESC
  • 2026-08-25T16:20:00.000ZS-8915 COHORT DECOMPOSITION Unmeasured platform population — observed 12,400, expected 0explains 30% of gap
    Detected
    25 Aug 16:20 UTC2d 22h ago
    Detector
    Cohort decomposition
    Slice
    Tizen · tvOS
    Confidence
    71%
    Affected users
    12,400
    Observed
    12,400
    Expected
    0
    Deviation
    explains 30% of gap
    Event dataNPAWGET /npaw/v1/data/playback200983mss-8915-00a3f
    {
  "timestamp": "2026-08-25T16:20:00.000Z",
  "endpoint": "GET /npaw/v1/data/playback",
  "requestId": "s-8915-00a3f",
  "status": 200,
  "latencyMs": 983,
  "request": {
    "metric": "Unmeasured platform population",
    "slice": "Tizen · tvOS",
    "detector": "cohort",
    "window": "6h"
  },
  "response": {
    "observed": "12,400",
    "expected": "0",
    "deviation": "explains 30% of gap",
    "confidence": 0.71,
    "affected_users": 12400
  }
}

Clustered support tickets

0 matched

No tickets matched.

Sample affected users

Not attributable to individual users.