Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$384.7kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
256.5k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
9.8%Against 6.2% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%214,800 exposed · 8.9% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%46,120 exposed · 11.4% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%38,400 exposed · 14.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%1,840 exposed · 19.6% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%12,400 exposed · 16.1% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%84,600 exposed · 12.8% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
109%85%62%38%14%
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Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 42,800 | 78 | $218,280 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 18,400 | 71 | $93,840 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 9,640 | 69 | $49,164 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 4,180 | 64 | $21,318 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 412 | 91 | $2,101 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session214,800 affected206,100 silent96%
- Crash during playback46,120 affected43,890 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts38,400 affected35,640 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play412 affected323 silent78%