Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$74kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
49.3k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
10.2%Against 6.4% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%41,291 exposed · 9.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%8,866 exposed · 11.8% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%7,382 exposed · 14.8% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%354 exposed · 20.4% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%2,384 exposed · 16.7% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%16,263 exposed · 13.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
109%85%61%37%13%
d0d1d3d7d14d21d30
Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 8,228 | 81 | $41,960 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 3,537 | 73.8 | $18,039 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 1,853 | 71.7 | $9,451 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 804 | 66.5 | $4,098 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 79 | 94.6 | $404 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session41,291 affected39,619 silent96%
- Crash during playback8,866 affected8,437 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts7,382 affected6,851 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play79 affected62 silent78%