Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$26.8kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
17.9k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
8.1%Against 5.1% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%14,952 exposed · 7.4% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%3,210 exposed · 9.4% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%2,673 exposed · 11.8% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%128 exposed · 16.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%863 exposed · 13.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%5,889 exposed · 10.6% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
109%86%64%42%20%
d0d1d3d7d14d21d30
Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 2,979 | 64.6 | $15,194 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 1,281 | 58.8 | $6,532 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 671 | 57.1 | $3,422 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 291 | 53 | $1,484 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 29 | 75.4 | $146 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session14,952 affected14,346 silent96%
- Crash during playback3,210 affected3,055 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts2,673 affected2,481 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play29 affected22 silent76%