Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$37.5kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
25k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
13.2%Against 8.3% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%20,914 exposed · 12.0% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%4,490 exposed · 15.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%3,739 exposed · 19.1% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%179 exposed · 26.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%1,207 exposed · 21.6% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%8,237 exposed · 17.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
110%84%57%31%4%
d0d1d3d7d14d21d30
Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 4,167 | 104.8 | $21,253 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 1,791 | 95.4 | $9,137 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 939 | 92.7 | $4,787 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 407 | 86 | $2,076 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 40 | 122.3 | $205 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session20,914 affected20,067 silent96%
- Crash during playback4,490 affected4,273 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts3,739 affected3,470 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play40 affected31 silent78%