Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$48.4kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
32.3k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
8.7%Against 5.5% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%27,033 exposed · 7.9% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%5,804 exposed · 10.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%4,833 exposed · 12.6% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%232 exposed · 17.5% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%1,561 exposed · 14.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%10,647 exposed · 11.4% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
109%86%63%40%18%
d0d1d3d7d14d21d30
Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 5,387 | 69.5 | $27,471 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 2,316 | 63.2 | $11,810 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 1,213 | 61.5 | $6,187 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 526 | 57 | $2,683 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 52 | 81 | $264 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session27,033 affected25,938 silent96%
- Crash during playback5,804 affected5,524 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts4,833 affected4,485 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play52 affected41 silent79%