Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$16.4kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
11k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
12.2%Against 7.7% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%9,179 exposed · 11.1% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%1,971 exposed · 14.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%1,641 exposed · 17.6% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%79 exposed · 24.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%530 exposed · 20.0% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%3,615 exposed · 15.9% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
110%84%59%33%7%
d0d1d3d7d14d21d30
Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 1,829 | 96.9 | $9,328 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 786 | 88.2 | $4,010 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 412 | 85.7 | $2,101 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 179 | 79.5 | $911 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 18 | 113 | $90 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session9,179 affected8,808 silent96%
- Crash during playback1,971 affected1,876 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts1,641 affected1,523 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play18 affected14 silent78%