Diagnostics
Churn explained by experience
100.0%Top three drivers carry 70.3% of it
Revenue at risk
$26kPer month, across the named cohorts
Silent sufferers
17.3k95.4% of affected users never raised a ticket
Silent cancel rate
7.8%Against 4.9% for those who did complain
Ranked churn drivers
share of explained variance
- Repeated rebuffering in the first three sessions31.4%14,526 exposed · 7.1% cancel vs 3.1% · 4d lag
- Crash during playback22.1%3,119 exposed · 9.1% cancel vs 3.1% · 6d lag
- Video start failure on first play attempt16.8%2,597 exposed · 11.3% cancel vs 3.1% · 2d lag
- Unresolved support ticket older than 72h11.2%124 exposed · 15.6% cancel vs 3.1% · 9d lag
- Payment failure with a suspension period9.4%839 exposed · 12.8% cancel vs 3.1% · 1d lag
- No successful play in the first 7 days9.1%5,721 exposed · 10.2% cancel vs 3.1% · 21d lag
Retention — exposed to poor QoE against not
30 days
106.3%90.1%73.9%57.7%41.5%
109%87%65%42%20%
d0d1d3d7d14d21d30
Both curves are on their own scale — read the shapes, not the distance between the lines.
At-risk cohorts
| Cohort | Users | Mean risk | Revenue at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Android 14 · Revolut BR · GRU edge | 2,894 | 62.2 | $14,761 |
| Android TV · app 3.4.1 · all tenants | 1,244 | 56.6 | $6,346 |
| Altiplano PE · LIM edge | 652 | 55 | $3,325 |
| Vela Fintech AR · sign-in failures | 283 | 51 | $1,442 |
| Nexo Bank MX · entitlement mismatch | 28 | 72.5 | $142 |
Silent suffering, by experience
- ≥ 3 rebuffer events in a session14,526 affected13,938 silent96%
- Crash during playback3,119 affected2,968 silent95%
- Start failure on ≥ 2 attempts2,597 affected2,410 silent93%
- Entitled but cannot play28 affected22 silent79%